Commodity Comex Gold Futures Tips

Comex Gold Futures for Dec delivery hit their weakest level in 7 weeks to $1698.7 before closing at $1701.6 for the first time since Sept. 7, with trading volume at 20% below its 30-day average. The US Federal Reserve stuck to its plan to keep stimulating growth until the job market improves offering no surprising moves in its policy statement. Comex Gold Prices hit a 2012 high on October 5 at $1,795.69 on market optimism after the Fed in September unveiled a third round of mortgage backed securities (MBS) buying to stimulate economic growth but the initial optimism on the Fed’s QE3 stimulus seems fading off. Gold Prices are once again trading under the levels where they were prior to the Federal Reserve’s third quantitative easing (QE3) announcement. Despite the absence of surprises, the outcome should give Gold Investors confidence of the Inflationary consequences of the unlimited QE3.

The Fed also repeated its vow to keep rates near zero until mid-2015 and its pledge to keep supporting growth while the recovery strengthens. It also made no change to its plan announced in September to buy $40 billion in Treasury & Mortgage-backed debt per month meant to push down long-term interest rates. The FOMC remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions, reported Reuters. The Fed noted some areas of improvement, such as consumer spending, but said jobs growth remains slow and that the unemployment remains “elevated.” Even though the Fed’s latest round of mortgage-bond buyback should underpin Gold Prices in the long term, the US Federal Reserve cannot eliminate the risks for a global deflation. Gold Prices also appeared to have lost momentum after repeatedly failing to break the psychologically important $1,800 an ounce level thrice this year.

Commodity Gold Updates

COMEX Gold futures yet again slipped towards their one month lows of $1715 per ounce as the selling pressure stayed in place amid mixed undertone in global equities and strength in US dollar. The greenback is quoting in a positive manner after losing slightly yesterday and neared 1.3000 levels against the Euro yet again today. The currency had slipped after a local election in Spain saw Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's party holding on to power in his home region of Galicia. The greenback had neared 1.3100 levels before this news hit the streets. COMEX Gold futures for December are quoting at $1720.45, down $5.85 per ounce on the day.

Global markets shriveled yesterday on world economic worries. The Japanese exports tumbled by 10.3% in the year to September, recording a drop for fourth consecutive month. This was the biggest drop in the measure for nearly 18 months. This hurt the sentiments on worries that the global economy is extending its weak run and demand for copper might slow in near term.

Further, the German central bank stated that there are increasing signs that a perceptible expansion of economic growth in the third quarter of 2012 will be followed by stagnation or even a slight decrease in gross domestic product in the final quarter of the year. In the final quarter of 2012, the German growth is likely to slow substantially as economic weakness in a number of Eurozone countries puts the brakes on growth.

Gold has been hit hard in the last few days as highs near $1800 per ounce proved unsustainable and weak Chinese demand hurt the sentiments. Mainland Chinese imports of gold from Hong Kong slowed dramatically in August. Hong Kong shipments of the metal to Mainland China for the month totaled 54 tons, a drop of 29% from the 76 tons shipped in July, according to data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department.

COMEX Gold has dropped nearly 80 dollars in last two and half weeks and could witness some buying at the present levels. The local MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs 30979, down Rs 89 per 10 grams on the day. Prices had dropped more than Rs 200 on the day yesterday. The counter has been witnessing a persistent rise in the open interest, which is up 4.64% on the day so far today.

Commodity Agro Updates

Chilli futures ended the day with heavy losses as heavy long liquidation continued. Fresh crop arrivals from Madhya Pradesh amid strong stocks with major mandis added selling in the market. The NCDEX Chilli November contract ended the day at Rs 4844, down Rs 100 or 2.02% from last close.

Chilli 334 prices traded steady at Rs 5,200-5,500 per quintal in the Guntur mandi. The total arrivals slipped to 20,000 bags (4,000 bags of Khammam teja) today from 25,000 bags on previous day.

Fresh arrivals from Madhya Pradesh are likely to augment to almost 80000-90000 bags in the coming days. Fresh arrivals will also increase from Maharashtra in the coming 15-20 days. Strong carryover stocks in the major producing states on the account of sluggish export demand might also pressurize the prices in the coming days. Traders estimated that total stocks of around 48-50 lakh bags have been reported in the cold storages of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra.

Chilli failed to hold above Rs 5 k per quintal level and dropped to new lows on long liquidations. The counter closed the day at Rs 4844, down Rs 100 or 2.02% and the open interest dipped 9% to 4,980 tonnes, indicating long liquidations.

Commodity Copper Updates

MCX Copper futures are trading on a weak note following the frail outing for world equities and a sell off in the LME copper futures as global economic worries stayed in focus and the US dollar maintained its firm tone. The anti austerity protests turned ugaly in Greece and Spain and the Spanish 10-year Government bond yield jumped back over 6% on news that Catalonia wants to leave Spain. The LME Copper is down $93 or 1.10% to trade at $8161 per tonne right now.

The Spanish worries hit the stock markets in Europe hard and the major indices are down around 1.5-2%. Spanish stocks plummeted by 3.40% on the Catalonia effect. The Euro tumbled to 1.2850- its two-week low level on these cues. Germany cleared the last legal hurdle to ratifying the euro zone's new bailout fund on Wednesday with a cabinet declaration that addresses concerns raised by the country's Constitutional Court, according to media reports. However this was already factored in the market and the Spanish worries seemed to be the sole factor driving the market forces today.

LME Copper fell through the 8200 levels and gave up bulk of its yesterday's gain. The metal is holding on quite tenuously amid weak cues from equities and could fall further if equities turn in further bearish. Reports of Chinese bonded copper inventories surging to record highs are not helping the red metal much either.

In other metals, Zinc, Lead and Nickel are down more than 1% each. MCX Copper futures for November yet again failed to hold on around Rs 445 levels and fell in the afternoon trade. The counter quotes at Rs 442.25, down Rs 2.75 or 0.62% on the day. There has been a sharp rise of 6.80% in the open interest for the counter indicating heavy short selling as a critical break under Rs 450 in last week turns the sentiments bearish.

Commodity news today

There has been a sharp drop in the mustard. On NCDEX, mustard futures down nearly 1 per cent is trading. After Sopa Akstrctors Solvent Association of India (SEA) in the oil and oilseed futures are expected to be heavy betting.

SEA is the huge volatility in prices due to the heavy betting is. So the regulator and the government should take strict measures on it as soon as possible. FMC SEA met last week, oil seeds and oil futures traded off on Saturday and has called for a reduction in Finl expiration date.

1 per cent fall at NCDEX Mustard is trading at Rs 3920. Barley on the NCDEX has weakened about 3 percent and its price has come close to Rs 1713. Gram declined by 0.5 per cent and the price has come down to Rs 3,700. About 1.5 per cent to Rs 1,200 on NCDEX maize is trading down. Wheat declined by 2 per cent and is trading at Rs 1,180.

Decline in base metals. Down all metals, including copper are traded on MCX. Despite improvements in Chinese manufacturing data on the London Metal Exchange copper has seen a decline in the effect on domestic business. 0.25 to 1 per cent decline in base metals on MCX.

Idling on MCX gold-filled environment is managed to the top of the Rs 28 700. Although silver is trading around 0.5 per cent fall to Rs 56 200. And the slowdown in crude oil is trading at Rs 5440. With 1 per cent on MCX Natural gas is trading close to Rs 102.

Commodity Tips

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